From the failing trace, MP2 is never sending an Authentication commit frame. It is sending the first authentication commit frame in the MP2 → MG capture.
This tells me it is capable of initiating, but maybe not responding? We’re still digging through the traces, in the meantime I’d be interested to know what wpa_supplicant is reporting in the debuglogs. Looks like you’re running supplicant manually so just add -dd to your supplicant invocation.